Alstom SA (OTCPK:ALSMY) Fiscal Year 2024/2025 Q1 Order & Sales Call July 23, 2024 12:30 PM ET
Company Participants
Bernard Delpit - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Delphine Brault - ODDO BHF
Daniela Costa - Goldman Sachs
Martin Wilkie - Citi
Akash Gupta - J.P. Morgan
Gael de-Bray - Deutsche Bank
Andre Kukhnin - UBS
Jonathan Mounsey - BNP Paribas
Vladimir Sergievskiy - Barclays
James Moore - Redburn
Operator
Hello, and welcome to the Alstom Fiscal Year 2024/2025 First Quarter Order & Sales. My name is George, and I'll be the coordinator for this event.
Please note, this conference is being recorded, and for the duration of the call your lines will be in listen-only mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions towards the end of the presentation. [Operator Instructions]
I'd like to hand the call over to your host today, Mr. Bernard Delpit, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Bernard Delpit
Thank you very much. Good evening or good morning everyone, and welcome to this conference call to discuss orders and sales for the first quarter. Starting with order intake, slide three, we recorded €3.6 billion of orders in the first quarter, and the backlog is broadly stable at €92 billion at end of June. From a regional perspective, Europe is leading with large orders in Germany, the U.K., and Italy. With regards to product lines, we continue to see good momentum in signaling in services with book-to-bill above one. Our continued focus on base orders is paying off with a good flow in the first quarter, which is supportive for margins.
A few additional remarks, first, market dynamics remain solid. The pipeline potential is around €200 billion of opportunities for the next three years. Second, and as announced in our full-year results, we expect order intakes to gain momentum as we progress through the year. Quality of order intake in terms of margins is in line with midterm trajectory. Margin in order intake continues to exceed margin in backlog which, in turn, largely exceeds margins in the P&L. Margin in order intake in Q1 were particularly good.
On slide four, some key orders in this quarter. It include another success for 70 Traxx locos in Italy, a landmark contract from Hamburg Metro with a total value up to €2.8 billion, with a first call off under this agreement of €670 million, including both Rolling Stock and signaling. And then, additional 10 trains for the Elizabeth Line in the U.K., associated with maintenance service, obviously with margins for those trains that have been updated, and then with different margins from the one we booked in the last years.
Terms and conditions of all those orders have been carefully reviewed and negotiated considering the size of certain of those orders. And they are in line with our objectives. I would like to add that, since June 30, you've also seen strong news flow on signaling, with OBB in Austria for around €100 million, and Perth in Western Australia for approximately €650 million. This is encouraging for a signaling business and for the second quarter order intake. Last but not least, a major order will be disclosed tomorrow morning. I cannot anticipate on the client disclosure, but stay tuned.
Turning to sales, they reached €4.4 billion in Q1, including €2.3 billion for rolling stock, €1.1 billion for services, €637 million for SIG signaling and €341 million for systems. Alstom delivered organic sales growth of 5.3% in Q1, which is in-line with full-year guidance. Rolling stock activity was quite high notably in Europe with deliveries relating to the Olympics in France.
Of note, the good start of services ramping up in all regions and delivering a 13% organic growth year-on-year. On Slide six, regarding rolling stock production, 965 cars were produced in Q1. It came lower than the 1,122 production achieved over the same period last fiscal year. However, the contracts mix is very different and simply said better than last year. I'm talking here of the contracts mix that is a combination of type of cars and type of contracts.
With the end of the production of the Avantra program in the U.K. and of the ICX in Germany, with higher deliveries in France on programs such as [indiscernible] New Generation and Metros for Paris Region. We will refine full-year outlook in terms of car production at the time of H1, but the message is the same as in May. We'll now stabilize production in a range between 4,500 and 5,000 cars per year with less swings in the mix going forward. We are talking here about cars production. Based on last year experience, we are carefully monitoring to deliver more than what we produce with a bit more than 1,000 cars delivered during Q1.
On slide seven, just to emphasize a strong team's mobilization around the Olympics Games in Paris with three metro lines, one commuter line and two tramways lines opened or extended. Slide eight, it looks now like an old story, but it happened only few weeks ago. So, deleveraging plan is now executed. For those of you who were off in May, it's now done. During the first quarter, we announced and executed the successful completion of a €1 billion rights issue, as well as the issuance of a €750 million hybrid bond. This was achieved, thanks to the strong support of our reference shareholders, as well as a supportive market environment.
We're also in the final stage of the sales process regarding our U.S. Conventional signaling business. We are expecting the last closing conditions to be waived shortly. And as previously announced, the plan is to close the deal during the second quarter. Net proceeds from these transactions will amount to €2.4 billion, €1.7 billion already cashed in and €0.7 billion in September. The impact on deleveraging amounts to €2 billion due to the treatment of hybrid bonds as 50% equity and 50% debt by the rating agency. Proceeds are progressively used to repay short-term debt, including commercial papers and RCF, and we'll also fund short-term working capital requirements and free cash flow seasonality.
Regarding the impact on credit rating, Moody's upgraded the outlook to stable on June 30th. This was the aim of the plan and Alstom fully implemented it in a timely manner.
Turning now to guidance, let me remind you of the key assumptions that underpin our fiscal year 24/25 outlook. On the external factors, supportive market demand and level of down payments broadly in line with last year. As of today, these conditions are met and confirmed. The delivering plan being fully executed, key remaining action on our side is the end of the integration program with Bombardier. I can confirm that this condition will be met during the year as per plan.
With afore, confirm the fiscal year 24/25 outlook that we provided at full-year results in May, i.e., book-to-bill above one, sales organic growth around 5%, adjusted EBIT around 6.5%, with margin improvement to be more pronounced in the second-half the year due to structural seasonality, but also to the timing of the various self-help initiatives regarding cost savings, and free cash flow generation to be within a range of €300 million to €500 million for the full-year. And regarding the first-half, we confirm the seasonality which we explained last May. We expect free cash flow for the first-half to be negative with a range of €300 million to €500 million. Regarding mid-term ambitions, there is no change to the framework that we provided back in May.
Before we open for Q&A, let me share a few words of conclusion. Commercial Momentum is sound, with order intakes to accelerate within the year, starting in Q2. Mobilization around the Rolling Stock delivery is strong, as seen in France for the Olympics. And deleveraging plan has been executed, and put Alstom on solid foundation. So, in a nutshell, we are in line with the plan unveiled in May. Thanks a lot for listening. I will now take your questions.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you very much, sir. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Delphine Brault of ODDO BHF. Please go ahead, your line is open.
Delphine Brault
Yes, thank you for taking my question, and good evening everyone. I have two. First, can you provide a bit more color on your pipeline for Q2 and H2, so for the remainder of the year, maybe my region or by segment? And second, can you comment on any tension that may still see in your supply chain, if any?
Bernard Delpit
Thank you, Delphine. What I can do is, firstly, to remind you that tomorrow morning, we'll make a significant announcement on a new order to be booked in Q2. And that's going to be in Europe. That's going to be for Rolling Stock and service. And that will be, again, a significant order. What I can also do is to remind you that we have announced large orders that you already know. They have been announced and waiting proper conditions for booking, for example, in Portugal for €700 million, [Haifa another rate] (ph) for €700 million, Perth signaling €650 million, and Proxima for €700 million.
On top of that, around €15 billion of options on frame agreements to be called of progressively of next quarters and years. And that that bring us to confirm our book-to-bill above one for the full-year, and a strong order intake in Q2 as well.
On the supply chain, what I can tell you that it's still something we are monitoring very carefully because it could explain some of the production bottlenecks that we have in certain sites. Nevertheless, nothing major to flag here. So, still on the top of our priority in terms of execution, but nothing specific, I would say, to flag.
Delphine Brault
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you very much, ma'am. We'll now move to Daniela Costa of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Daniela Costa
Hi, thank you. I have two questions. One is a follow-up, I guess, now that the deleveraging part of your first priorities were done, can you talk a little bit to those working capital actions that you were implementing, what has been done, how it is progressing, a bit of an update on that? And then the quick second question is regarding the whole U.S. tariffs and the risks around the elections? I know U.S. is not very big for you, but are you fully -- all the costs for everything that is done in the U.S. are U.S.-based or could we see some impacts from tariff? Thank you.
Bernard Delpit
Okay. On the first one, on the deleveraging, yes, we have some organic actions undertaken since, now, a few quarters to improve the situation. Still we have some seasonality. Just to illustrate, the actions on inventories continue, I think, to progress. What we have done to synchronize production and deliveries is also part of the plan. That's what I explained when I described the situation in terms of production. We have delivered more cars than what we produced in Q1, that's an illustration.
And we are also working to continue to put the adequate pressure on our supply chain. And again, we manage it carefully because, on the one hand, we could have some issues. And on the other hand, we need to get the right tune in terms of inventories. And most of the inventories are coming with the supply chain and the supplies. So, yes, we are moving on two legs, and our organic measures are paying off. But I think we need to wait for the end of the semester to describe what kind of impact it has on the balance sheet.
Now to your point on the U.S. elections, frankly, nothing to flag here, as you said, it's an important region for us, the Americas, but nothing really to flag here. The Buy America Act is still -- mean that 95% of what we are doing is sourced in the U.S. And I don't think we might expect something in the coming years. And we don't see a major impact as of today on the Amtrak project that is progressing well. And now, frankly, I could say the same thing for the French elections which has created some impact and -- I mean on the political side of it, but nothing material on our industry and our business.
Daniela Costa
Got it, thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you very much. We'll now move to Martin Wilkie of Citi. Please go ahead.
Martin Wilkie
Thank you, and good evening. It's Martin from Citi. The first I had was just going back to the pipeline. I think at the start of the call you mentioned it's now around €200 billion. If I recall correctly, it was around €190 billion last time around. Just if you could give us a bit more color on what's driving that, either by region or product, that's seeing that much higher in the pipeline? Thank you.
Bernard Delpit
Frankly, Martin, considering the total amount, €190 million to €200 million doesn't make a big difference, nothing really to flag here. It's in the same, I would say, ballpark on what we discussed in May, nothing significant to report here.
Martin Wilkie
Okay, thanks. And if I could just ask a follow-up thing, obviously, you talked about mix shift over time with services and signaling becoming a more important part to the mix relative to Rolling Stock. But it does seem that the very healthy backlog and conversion of Rolling Stock, given what you're talking about for Q2 as well. Has there been any change in the front or should we still expect that mix shift of the revenue mix away from rolling stock to continue that you talked about --
Bernard Delpit
No, nothing new. Again, we are very much in the same direction of what we explained in May. We've seen a good momentum in terms of signaling in services. I mean, I'm sure you noticed that the book-to-bill for services is double-digit one, so very much in line with what we said. And again, tomorrow you will see a big bundle, I would say an order, so with a lot of services, and we are happy with development in the signaling business as well. So, no, I would say that it confirm what we said in May with the mixed converging in terms of rolling stock and services in 2026-2027 towards 40% of our backlog for each and signaling on top being around 20%. That's very much our roadmap and I think that what we're going to see in terms of order intake in this year will confirm it.
Martin Wilkie
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you, Martin. Our next question will be from Akash Gupta of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Akash Gupta
Yes, hi. Good afternoon, Bernard, and thanks for your time. I have two as well. The first one is on your debt reduction plans. You have largely executed the plan, and I'm wondering if you can talk about what kind of feedback you're receiving from customers, and with a better balance sheet, do you see room for positive surprise on orders? Should the customer get more confidence in your ability to execute large, long-term contracts after the debt reduction plan? And the second one is on signaling. So, orders were up almost 100% year-on-year, and we saw you booked a large order in Hamburg. I'm wondering if we strip out this large Hamburg order, then can you talk about the base order development and signaling that you are seeing. Thank you.
Bernard Delpit
On the first question, Akash, the same way we said in the winter that we had no negative feedback from the customer on our rating situation and balance sheet issues. I can tell you that we had no positive feedback from the customer on the execution of the deleveraging plan. Frankly, for them, we are a signed company, a huge backlog to execute and they are very confident that we'll be there and they need us to be there in order to deliver on the backlog. So, no real feedback, I must say. We had very positive feedback from our shareholders, from the market, from the financial community, I would say, but not really for the customers. I'm not sure I get your question. Was it on base orders or is it -- could you please rephrase it?
Akash Gupta
Signaling, so I mean, if you look at signaling orders for Q1, they're up almost 100% year-on-year. And we know that you booked a large order in Hamburg, which also had some signaling. And I was wondering if you can provide some color on underlying orders in signaling, what sort of development you are seeing there excluding this large order?
Bernard Delpit
Well, a way to say it is that to say of almost 900 million of order in signaling, Hamburg represents, let's say, 150 million. That means that the base orders represent 750 or so. So, this is very much in line with what we have always said that base orders with good margins are fueling the pipeline for our signaling business and it's going in the same direction of what we said in May, both for signaling and for base orders.
Akash Gupta
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you very much. We'll now move to Gael de-Bray of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Gael de-Bray
Well, thanks very much. Good afternoon, everybody. I have two questions, please. So, firstly, I wanted to understand if the 14% decrease in the car production level was in line with your internal assumptions and if not, why that had been the case? Do you also still expect the production of cars to grow more or less around 5% this year? And in which segments and geographies do you expect to see an acceleration in the remainder of the year? And then I'll probably get back for the second question.
Bernard Delpit
Yes, okay. So, I will not comment on our internal objectives because there are many factors here. What I can tell you is that we are trying to get both cautious assumptions when it comes to size, the cost of our activities and ambitious target when it comes to delivering on our commercial target. So, the fact that it is where it is today in terms of number of production doesn't tell you much about the financial impact of this production, but I would say that it's in line with the plan. Maybe it could have been more and we had here and there some bottlenecks that have created some minor deviation to the plan, but it does not change our total view on the year to be broadly inline maybe a little bit above what we produced last year and above all what we delivered last year. So, I would say no major deviation here and no impact on our financial guidance.
Gael de-Bray
Okay, thanks very much. And the second one is about the recent dissociation of the CEO and chairman roles. I know it's been only about a month, but I was curious to hear your thoughts on the process and on what this could potentially change for the company going forward?
Bernard Delpit
Okay. The CFO has no personal view on the governance of the company. It's a recent change and they are working together, I would say, on a very quick frequent basis, so, nothing much to report here, Gael. I don't know if you -- what you were exactly expecting. I mean, these are -- those Chairman and CEO are strong personalities and I guess that would be very good for Alstom, nothing specific to report here.
Gael de-Bray
All right. Thank you very much. Have a good evening.
Operator
Thank you, sir. We'll now move to Andre Kukhnin of UBS. Please go ahead.
Andre Kukhnin
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for taking our questions. I've got two on margins. I'll just go one at a time. Firstly, I wanted to pick up on your comment about the margin progression in the year being second-half, even weighted due to seasonality and timing of season measures. I just wondered if you could help us calibrate that a little bit. Obviously, we're looking for about 80 basis points margin extension for a year, and you already had more of a second-half kind of progression in the margin last year. So, could you maybe talk about those measures and the size of them that create this HDV issue?
Bernard Delpit
Thank you, Andre, for your question. It's not a time really to discuss margins and profitability. What I can say is that what we seen in Q1 as margins on the order intake was very robust and above what we saw last year in terms of backlog improvement. But we stick to what we have said, approximately 50 bps improvement in the backlog year-on-year, that is the target and I would say that Q1 is maybe a little bit above the target, but considering the size of the order intake, you should not take it as indication that we will be above the yearly guidance in terms of improvement on the backlog, the margin on the overall backlog.
Andre Kukhnin
Okay. So, just to make sure I'm not confused, so if we're looking for margins to go from 5.7% last year to 6.5%, would the 80 basis points progression, I thought you got it for a bit less than that in H1 and a bit more in H2. And the 50-60 that you mentioned before, you mentioned the backlog progression, is that kind of the guiding light for H1? And then you expect to accelerate that in the second-half with the self-help measures. Is that the right lead?
Bernard Delpit
I'm just telling you that the margin in the backlog is good. And it has improved significantly in for the order intake of the first quarter. On now the adjusted EBIT progression, what we have confirmed in the guidance that it will be more pronounced in the second-half of this year for the reason of the seasonality. So, I expect that H1 adjusted EBIT will be very consistent with full-year adjusted EBIT last year. And the significant progression will come in the second-half because of activity and because of the cost saving initiatives that we have taken and that will have a full-year impact on the second-half of this year.
So, the seasonality that we flagged in May, will be not only on the cash, but also on adjusted EBIT. And again, something close to last year profitability, you're going to see that in the first-half of this year. By the way, it already happened last year, by the way, where the profitability of H1 was close to last year full-year profitability. I'm not suggesting it's a pattern, but we're going to replicate same kind of profile for adjusted profitability, adjusted EBIT this year.
Andre Kukhnin
That is great, thank you. My second question was about the backlog margin, but you answered it at the beginning of your answer. If I may just cheekily squeeze in one, on the cash flow profile, your guidance is very clear. I wondered if I could ask at all whether the kind of cadence of the order intake and that also difference or – in the deliveries in Q1, does that place you anywhere kind of off the middle of the minus €300 million to €500 million range for the first-half, or are we still certainly kind of in the middle of it for the first-half?
Bernard Delpit
I will not comment on that, Andre. I mean, based on Q1 orders, I think it's too early to give you more color on how we see our down payments over the year and how it can be articulated with our free cash flow. Just keep in mind that you will see an acceleration of order intake in Q2. And we have the same view as the one that we explained in May for the full-year and H1 in terms of free cash flow. No change here.
Andre Kukhnin
I can clearly understand. Thank you.
Bernard Delpit
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Next question will be coming from Jonathan Mounsey of BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Mounsey
Hi, thanks for fitting me in. Maybe the first question, I think you touched on the order pipeline being strong. I know that last year, I think you walked away from that large contract in India. I think after you've been even selected as the preferred bidder. I just wonder, is there any sign that, that contract can come back? I know it was extremely large, perhaps on better terms.
Bernard Delpit
No news from India.
Jonathan Mounsey
Okay. Maybe as a follow-up, obviously, during this period high inflation, you and, I guess, the rest of the industry sort of relied more heavily on escalation clauses than had been the case in the past. And just wondering whether those types of contract details are still in place on fresh contract? Also now that the inflation is easing, and maybe I'm just wondering whether the competition starts to rise, and it's harder to get that sort of protection on the contracts that you're winning going forward in order to be competitive against everybody else in the market?
Bernard Delpit
We still have the same kind of clauses in the new contracts. I mean, that's way -- the point is that index or indexes will be different, but from a contractual point of view, we need the same protection, and we have it.
Jonathan Mounsey
Maybe just one final one, given how shortly the answer to the first one was, obviously, good to know that the disposal to [nor] is almost complete. Is there anything else in the pipeline around disposals, anything active or being considered that we could see in the next sort of 24 months or so? Or does that really friendly disposal process to the end for the foreseeable future?
Bernard Delpit
I think that, we said vis-à-vis when releasing full-year results that we are continuing to look at what needs to be done in order to have a dynamic management of our portfolio of activities. So, I would say nothing on the back burner, but still a lot of activity of thinking about our strategy and the impact on our portfolio of activities, but nothing really to flag here for the coming quarters in terms of disposals or acquisitions.
Jonathan Mounsey
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you very much. Next question will be coming from Vlad Sergievskiy of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Vladimir Sergievskiy
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my few questions. I will ask them one by one. Just one on the cash flow, please, in the second-half of last year, you reported a very sizable increase in prepayments. Our contract liabilities were up by over €1 billion, which is twice bigger than a semi-annual increase previously. At the same time, your order intake over the same period, excluding service orders was relatively modest and book-to-bill was below 1x. Could you help us understand the reason for such a big increase in prepayments during the last period? In the period when orders were relatively modest, and how this increase impacts your view on contracting capital development going forward, maybe for this year and beyond?
Bernard Delpit
Okay. I'm not sure where you want to go. Yes, we've seen a strong increase in contract liabilities because of prepayments last year because we had good commercial momentum and the acquisition in the contracts. So, if the question is, does it have any impact on this year? The answer is, no. We continue to see a good momentum. I think it's too early to talk about contract working cap, but there is some seasonality as we explained because we continue to execute on the contracts, but in terms of activities of some of our Western factories, second-half is more loaded than the first one.
So, it's why we have some seasonality, and it will have an impact on working cap in the first-half. We are monitoring the situation and we'll discuss that with H1 results.
Vladimir Sergievskiy
Thank you very much. And a follow-up on the cash flow, please. If we look at your guidance for the year, €300 million to €500 million, can I clarify, does this guidance include lease payments and interest costs related to the hybrid bond? And how this free cash flow calculation change if those elements are included, it will be perhaps helpful if you can quantify those elements to us, how you see them for this year? That would be the second question.
Bernard Delpit
Since we discussed it at full-year, so, we have the same definition of free cash flow as previously. So, it excludes leases and any coupons that have treated as dividends. And for the leases, I mean, no big change. We are still thinking about €160 million to €170 million per year. And for the hybrid coupon, it's going to be in the range of €35 million net of tax for the full-year basis.
Vladimir Sergievskiy
That's clear. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you very much, sir. We'll now move to James Moore of Redburn. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
James Moore
Good evening everyone. Hi, Bernard. I don't have too much to ask because you've been very clear tonight. So, thanks. Maybe I could go back to your margin comment being particularly good in the new order intake in the quarter. Is that because of a higher mix of signaling and service, which helps on a mix basis? I'd be keen to get a write on that and just to understand on a pure train basis, whether you're seeing the order intake margin progressing. That's the first question. And then, the second question surrounds down payments. I think one of your ambitions was to improve the down payment percentages to drive the quality of free cash flow. And without being too precise on the numbers, given the orders you've seen in the first quarter and what you signaled being attractive orders in the second quarter, are you seeing signs of that improved down payment terms coming through as you hoped?
Bernard Delpit
Good evening, James. On your first I think, yes, the good performance in terms of margin on order intake in Q1 has to do with the mix with a good level of both signaling and base orders. That's really what has driven margin in order intake in Q1. I wouldn't draw too much conclusion of that, but it means it's moving in the right direction. But it has to do with the mix, including mix in geographies, by the way.
In terms of down payments, frankly, no change to what we said in May. We said that we see the overall amount of down payments for this year consistent with what we experienced last year, so no major change, nothing really I could discuss here. I think it will be better in H1 to discuss it, but as we see some good momentum for Q2, I expect also some good level of down payments in H1, even if it could be a little bit unbalanced between H1 and H2, nothing really to flag here.
James Moore
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you very much, Mr. Moore. Ladies and gentlemen, as we are short a bit of time, we have time for only one more question. And the last question today is coming from [Thomason Day] (ph) of HSBC. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst
Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to come back to the pipeline and just to ask, around your previous comments on the pipeline, have you seen any sort of changes in market activity, any customer activity? I know previously you talked about customers becoming a bit more hesitant and I know you've also said obviously you're looking at quite good order intake for the second-half, but just wondering more generally whether that hesitancy has continued or whether it's something that's now sort of faded again into the background?
Bernard Delpit
Okay. As I said nothing really changed in this quarter versus what we explained in May. But looking at the number of bids that we are on and that we are working on and submissions that we are working on, I can tell you that I haven't seen any softness in the pipeline. A lot of activity in Europe and specifically in Germany, maybe some delay for some expected offers in the Americas, but nothing really material to flag here. We are working on the same assumptions in terms of order intake as we -- as now versus where we were in May and same assumptions in terms of total amount of down payments, so really nothing to mention here as a change in our landscape for this industry.
Unidentified Analyst
Great, thank you.
Operator
Thank you very much Mr. Day. Thank you very much for your presentation, Mr. Delpit. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference. We thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect. Have a good day, and goodbye.